Kowlometer Updates

[Stratos*Major]

When u look at it like that we are doing WAY better...even more than 2013.

I love a good perspective!

I think for some the stands were a plus. For MANY, like myself, I didn't really care one way or another. I wanted to see the figures first!

I was just talking about this with other store managers...end of the month is always the worst...bills are due and any overage for the month has to be made up at the end so budgets get EVEN tighter!

First of the month is always when you make the most and sets you up for the rest of the month.

If the first of the month is crappy...not a good sign for the rest of the month.

That's being said...I think we'll end at 120% this year.

Not as high as 2013 but better than 2014.

[The All American]

When u look at it like that we are doing WAY better...even more than 2013.

I love a good perspective!

I think for some the stands were a plus. For MANY, like myself, I didn't really care one way or another. I wanted to see the figures first!

I was just talking about this with other store managers...end of the month is always the worst...bills are due and any overage for the month has to be made up at the end so budgets get EVEN tighter!

First of the month is always when you make the most and sets you up for the rest of the month.

If the first of the month is crappy...not a good sign for the rest of the month.

That's being said...I think we'll end at 120% this year.

Not as high as 2013 but better than 2014.

Aren't we capped at 100% this year? (Which is, I think, 110% of the normal years).

[WDWFreak53]

How so? We don't really have a history to look at to compare "SDCC bumps". While you look at 9% as "not promising", I view it as a strong jump.

While some were hoping we'd be at 70% or over, we are still tracking well over what previous years' percentages have been. And given the fact that the 2013 sub did 45% in its last day and the 2014 sub did 31% in its last day, I'm very comfortable with where we are.

Yep... did any of the big guys buy yet? (BBTS?)

[Stratos*Major]

Oh yeah...duh!

Then that's even better!

Hmmm...but do we think they will turn down the xtra 10-20% or will that then further reduce DOS stock?
I'd extend the subs and reduce DOS...because of the guaranteed sales across the board.

Guess we will find out?

Aren't we capped at 100% this year? (Which is, I think, 110% of the normal years).

[Zodach]

A lot of people will wait until the last few days, that's just the way it goes. No reason to part with your sub fee money now, unless of course the meter gets much closer to 100%. Then you would probably see a lot of people rushing to put in their orders so they don't get shut out.

[Capt_Piett]

Aren't we capped at 100% this year? (Which is, I think, 110% of the normal years).

My guess? Even if they reach their minimum they need ahead of the sub closing, they'll keep it open until the end to try to squeeze more out. And if they do; Good. More subs help, not hurt in terms of making it more likely we get a 2016 line.

My guess is also some of the Internet toy stores probably haven't put their orders in yet as they're probably gauging how many of each figure they can sell via pre-order.

[hlinhk128]

60%!! Not as high as I had hoped but hitting over 50 without a figure being shown was reall impressive.
Big Bad Toy ***** hasn't even put up preorders yet so we'll see what happens when they jump in the game.

[AdultCollector]

Here is a graphical comparison of the sub sales data Gamutstreet shared with us today. Sale limit drawn from Toyguru quote in this thread: http://forums.mattycollector.com/eve...7/m/8251047178

[Stygian360]

A lot of people will wait until the last few days, that's just the way it goes. No reason to part with your sub fee money now, unless of course the meter gets much closer to 100%. Then you would probably see a lot of people rushing to put in their orders so they don't get shut out.

This---^ Obviously those on the fence don't want to sit and wait until the end hoping the rest of fandom will take up the slack, but it's fair to say that many will be waiting until the bitter end.

[scott metzger]

Guess we will find out?

Actually, no, we will not find out. We have no idea what the limit is or when it is met or passed. And we will NEVER know that for certain. We know only what Mattel tells us.

And all of that makes no real difference in the end. All that matters is Mattel saying, "We met the goal and 2015 is on."

[JonWes]

Here is a graphical comparison of the sub sales data Gamutstreet shared with us today. Sale limit drawn from Toyguru quote in this thread: http://forums.mattycollector.com/eve...7/m/8251047178


http://i806.photobucket.com/albums/y...ps857ddce2.jpg

I'm so happy you made this so I don't have to!

Looks like we're in pretty decent shape, so far. If the trend continues along the lines it's going we should make goal.

[AdultCollector]

I strongly believe we will likely go beyond the minimum goal to nearly reach or surpass the sub sale limit, and here is why.

In 2012, 2013 sub sales jumped from 70% up to 135% in the final 5 days. The next year, 2014 sub sales jumped from 63% up to %115 on the last sale day. Let's do the math:

2013 subs: 65% increase in the final five days.
2014 subs: 52% increase in the final five days.
2015 subs: 39% projected increase in the final five days.

If this trend were to hold true, and pretending today was August 13, over the course of the next five days, sales would increase from 60% up to 99%. Fortunately, there are still 15 days between now and the final 5-day period. If subscriptions sales were to increase 26% in the next 15 days, we would very likely reach the maximum allowed subscription purchase limit. I suspect that sales in the final five days will be much higher than projected, and will at least reach 2014's performance number.

Factors that could explain the higher sub sale rate includes:
* Free Grayskull stands for early subscribers.
* Fear of being declined a sub purhase due to the new sale limit.
* According to Toyguru, vintage characters sell better in Classics than any other type of character offered to date. 2015 will focus on vintage characters.
* We know which figures we're getting! At least moreso than in any other previous year's offerings for the Classics line. One poll suggests that because of this knowledge, about 50% of fans are more likely to subscribe.
* This is the unique opportunity to finish our vintage collection. Without these sales, our collections (which we have developed since 2008) will never be completed.
* Classics is ending regardless after 2015. The only chance we have of being offered Classics-styled figures in 2016 is by purchasing those 2015 subscriptions. Mattel management is not going to budge on this, as their company's stock has dropped while income has also dropped.
* Quarterly subscriptions are being offered to ease shipping costs.

Will we reach the limit? Maybe not, but if we do I don't want to be the person who was on the fence and then regretting not buying a subscription while they had the chance.

[Skeledor]

I'm not arguing your numbers from previous years but when you stop and think we reached 51% without any figures even being shown you would think after the reveals were made you would have more than 9%.It will probably make it but I just think it's odd you only get a 9% increase in sales after a big reveal.

[AdultCollector]

I'm not arguing your numbers from previous years but when you stop and think we reached 51% without any figures even being shown you would think after the reveals were made you would have more than 9%.It will probably make it but I just think it's odd you only get a 9% increase in sales after a big reveal.

In previous years SDCC did not make the big impact you'd expect. It's those final 5 days where the big purchases come in. I'm assuming the bulk of them are resellers who wait to measure the demand before they order their supply. Take BBTS for example. They can sell pre-ordererd figures, and use their own sales numbers to cover their projected sales in addition to those orders they need to fill.

[Veronica Mars]

Lets also remember this week was likely to be slow for sales as it's the last week of the month and lots of people will be getting paid on Friday, so we can hope to see a spike in sales over the weekend

[Canada-Man]

Looks like we are gonna kill it this year! Maybe there will be hope for an obscure 2016 sub!

[No-Ah]

I'm not arguing your numbers from previous years but when you stop and think we reached 51% without any figures even being shown you would think after the reveals were made you would have more than 9%.It will probably make it but I just think it's odd you only get a 9% increase in sales after a big reveal.

I don't think this matters at all. People at SDCC have extra expenses this week, a lot of people always wait until the first of the month to get paid, and we are WAY ahead of the last two years. I'd be shocked if we don't reach 80% by the beginning of the final 5 days, and I fully expect the final number this year to be HIGHER than last year's. In fact, I think we have a decent shot at hitting that 110% ceiling.

[AdultCollector]

I don't think this matters at all. People at SDCC have extra expenses this week, a lot of people always wait until the first of the month to get paid, and we are WAY ahead of the last two years. I'd be shocked if we don't reach 80% by the beginning of the final 5 days, and I fully expect the final number this year to be HIGHER than last year's. In fact, I think we have a decent shot at hitting that 110% ceiling.

I totally agree! Also the ceiling is technically about 126.5% since Toyguru stated the maximum was about "10% on top of what was sold last year". The goal was surpassed last year by 15%. So 0.10*1.15=0.115. 0.115+1.15=1.265.

[Prince Adam's Dad]

I'm not arguing your numbers from previous years but when you stop and think we reached 51% without any figures even being shown you would think after the reveals were made you would have more than 9%.It will probably make it but I just think it's odd you only get a 9% increase in sales after a big reveal.

Not necessarily. At all. Like I said, we don't really have a solid indicator that there is a huge immediate post-SDCC bump.

[Kid Canada]

I don't think this matters at all. People at SDCC have extra expenses this week, a lot of people always wait until the first of the month to get paid, and we are WAY ahead of the last two years. I'd be shocked if we don't reach 80% by the beginning of the final 5 days, and I fully expect the final number this year to be HIGHER than last year's. In fact, I think we have a decent shot at hitting that 110% ceiling.

And also, people may be waiting because they want to acquire a bunch of the SDCC over the next week or so, and that is where their toy budget is going for now.

[Ridureyu]

Well, I know I for one am waiting until payday at the first of the month before spending more than, say, bare minimum for food. And I wasn't even at SDCC!

[Dynamo of Eternia]

I do hope that we hit 100% (or at least somewhere in the 90s) before the last day. That would be cool.

Though it's hard to say if we are really doing better this year, or if people who were going to sign up anyway simply did so sooner due to there being a 'cap' on how many subs will be sold this year.

[AdultCollector]

I do hope that we hit 100% (or at least somewhere in the 90s) before the last day. That would be cool.
Though it's hard to say if we are really doing better this year, or if people who were going to sign up anyway simply did so sooner due to there being a 'cap' on how many subs will be sold this year.

I'm pretty positive the fear of being denied a sub due to the limit won't come into play until the final 5 days of the sale. Given the trend, no doubt resellers wait as long as they can to determine what demand there is for the figures before choosing how much money to invest in product.

[He-bro]

[AdultCollector]