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Thread: Coronavirus (COVID-19)

  1. #376
    Loco Motu Vato ehenyo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moltak View Post
    Oops we just can’t get these predictions even close.

    It was millions of Americans. Made its way down to 100K. Now only 60K.

    Fauci says deaths may be more like 60,000

    Don’t get me wrong. This is a good problem to have. But the sun is coming out, and the experts keep getting wronger, and in the right direction. Let’s get back to work.
    It's not a matter of right or wrong. There is no crystal ball. Thats why there were a few scenarios shared upfront. Millions would have died if precautions were not taken. Fortunately, a lot of people are doing the right thing, and the curve is being squashed.
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  2. #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by moltak View Post
    Oops we just canít get these predictions even close.

    It was millions of Americans. Made its way down to 100K. Now only 60K.

    Fauci says deaths may be more like 60,000

    Donít get me wrong. This is a good problem to have. But the sun is coming out, and the experts keep getting wronger, and in the right direction. Letís get back to work.
    It is almost like taking active measures to slow new infections has a direct affect on the death rate over time, and that each of those estimates only represents the projection at that moment in time under that set of circumstances. No, experts are all wrong, hur-dur.

  3. #378
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    Quote Originally Posted by moltak View Post
    Oops we just canít get these predictions even close.

    It was millions of Americans. Made its way down to 100K. Now only 60K.

    Fauci says deaths may be more like 60,000

    Donít get me wrong. This is a good problem to have.
    Then why keep harping on it, then? Would you be more satisfied if their initial prediction had come to pass? Because that's what it sounds like here. And it stands to reason that social distancing is (oh no!) actually making a difference here.
    I just don't get some of these types of posts these days in here.

  4. #379
    +2 Against Harpies Sword2Blanket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moltak View Post
    Oops we just canít get these predictions even close.

    It was millions of Americans. Made its way down to 100K. Now only 60K.

    Fauci says deaths may be more like 60,000

    Donít get me wrong. This is a good problem to have. But the sun is coming out, and the experts keep getting wronger, and in the right direction. Letís get back to work.
    It was millions of Americans could die if we did nothing.

    I honestly don't understand how someone can have that takeaway after reading the article. It's projected that even if we continue the measures that are currently in place the death toll will ultimately be four times what it is now.

    The article had a direct quote warning against this very mindset:

    "I think the American public have done a really terrific job of just buckling down and doing those physical separation and adhering to those guidelines," Fauci said on Thursday. "But having said that, we better be careful that we don't say, 'OK, we're doing so well we could pull back.' We still have to put our foot on the accelerator when it comes to the mitigation and the physical separation."

  5. #380
    Heroic Warrior Asher Tye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sword2Blanket View Post
    The article had a direct quote warning against this very mindset:

    "I think the American public have done a really terrific job of just buckling down and doing those physical separation and adhering to those guidelines," Fauci said on Thursday. "But having said that, we better be careful that we don't say, 'OK, we're doing so well we could pull back.' We still have to put our foot on the accelerator when it comes to the mitigation and the physical separation."

    Sorta like what happens when people taking antibiotics decide to stop taking them just because they feel better rather than completing the course. Like with TB.
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  6. #381
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    I live in a small town slap bang in the middle of England. It’s a visitor and tourist hotspot. Obviously this time of year the town starts to get busier and busier, peaking in the summer. It’s so quiet now. However, having said that, I went out today to do some food shopping, and I noticed more people walking around than I have done in weeks. The weather is really nice here right now, but it’s amazing how people just forget when everything looks so nice out. A little bit of sun, and people lose their minds. The government has specifically warned us about this weekend, as the weather is going to be even better. I just hope people don't give in to their temptations.

    We, too, are making good progress. Shows that, on the whole, people are listening. However, too early for the proverbial foot to be taken off the pedal.
    Last edited by Krueger; April 9, 2020 at 07:28pm.

  7. #382
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    Quote Originally Posted by moltak View Post
    Oops we just canít get these predictions even close.

    It was millions of Americans. Made its way down to 100K. Now only 60K.

    Fauci says deaths may be more like 60,000

    Donít get me wrong. This is a good problem to have. But the sun is coming out, and the experts keep getting wronger, and in the right direction. Letís get back to work.
    Unfortunately, they don't know if the warm months will curb the spread of COVID-19. Since it's not just like influenza, we have to wait and see.

    We can't all live our lives like this. It's an impossibility. The economy will collapse and people don't do well with isolation. So, something has to give.
    But the when and how is all unknown. We're all learning day-by-day what to do. Hopefully they can figure out a way to treat COVID-19. *fingers crossed*
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  8. #383
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krueger View Post
    I live in a small town slap bang in the middle of England. It’s a visitor and tourist hotspot. Obviously this time of year the town starts to get busier and busier, peaking in the summer. It’s so quiet now. However, having said that, I went out today to do some food shopping, and I noticed more people walking around than I have done in weeks. The weather is really nice here right now, but it’s amazing how people just forget when everything looks so nice out. A little bit of sun, and people lose their minds. The government has specifically warned us about this weekend, as the weather is going to be even better. I just hope people don't give in to their temptations.

    We, too, are making good progress. Shows that, on the whole, people are listening. However, too early for the proverbial foot to be taken off the pedal.
    Pretty much the same thing for us in our small Heartland village that's like something out of a Rockwell painting.

    People are flooding in from Chicago which is 60 miles around Lake Michigan and lightyears away. Yesterday our mayor put into effect an aspirational/wishful thinking law stating that people with out of town license plates (read: Illinois) have to self-quarantine for two weeks. Good luck enforcing that.

  9. #384
    Heroic Warrior manowar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heeeere's Olesker! View Post
    Pretty much the same thing for us in our small Heartland village that's like something out of a Rockwell painting.

    People are flooding in from Chicago which is 60 miles around Lake Michigan and lightyears away. Yesterday our mayor put into effect an aspirational/wishful thinking law stating that people with out of town license plates (read: Illinois) have to self-quarantine for two weeks. Good luck enforcing that.
    I'm in Chicago I'm still going out daily for work, and things are pretty light as far as traffic, people on the streets. I don't even want to have to go to the store to shop. It's bad enough dealing with people showing up at work (Optometrists office) and wanting unnecessary services. We're open for emergencies, but you have someone wanting adjustments, glasses cleaning, to browse sunglasses....sorry, not right now, not during a pandemic.

    Its ridiculous to think someone would want to take a roadtrip for a mini vacation. We have to maintain social distancing, people are waiting outside stores to que up to go in. What's so important that you have to travel 60 miles just to change your surroundings and stay inside. Nothing is open. What are you going to do, pick up dinner at a drive through and eat in your motel room...

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  10. #385
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heeeere's Olesker! View Post
    Pretty much the same thing for us in our small Heartland village that's like something out of a Rockwell painting.

    People are flooding in from Chicago which is 60 miles around Lake Michigan and lightyears away. Yesterday our mayor put into effect an aspirational/wishful thinking law stating that people with out of town license plates (read: Illinois) have to self-quarantine for two weeks. Good luck enforcing that.
    This makes me sick, and is similar to what was (and maybe still is) happening on the East Coast where the entitled rich people from NY were flooding the New England states & potentially spreading the virus.

    They should enforce the two-week self quarantine under penalty of jail time. But, I know they won't.

  11. #386
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    Quote Originally Posted by manowar View Post
    I'm in Chicago I'm still going out daily for work, and things are pretty light as far as traffic, people on the streets. I don't even want to have to go to the store to shop. It's bad enough dealing with people showing up at work (Optometrists office) and wanting unnecessary services. We're open for emergencies, but you have someone wanting adjustments, glasses cleaning, to browse sunglasses....sorry, not right now, not during a pandemic.

    Its ridiculous to think someone would want to take a roadtrip for a mini vacation. We have to maintain social distancing, people are waiting outside stores to que up to go in. What's so important that you have to travel 60 miles just to change your surroundings and stay inside. Nothing is open. What are you going to do, pick up dinner at a drive through and eat in your motel room...

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    It's a little different for Chicagoans who come out here. Most of them have fabulous second homes and all of the homes are no more than three or four blocks from Lake Michigan. So they're fine coming out here for a week or two and 'working from home', and going down to the lakeshore for a nice long hike or along meandering creeks and woodland areas. Plenty of room to social distance here. Sitting out in the backyard with members of your immediate family gathered around a crackling log burning in a fire pit and roasting 'Smores is wonderful too. Can't say as I blame them as we're blessed to live in Valhalla.

    When this thing is finally over with, come summer, how about you and Krueger come out here for a weekend and we can hoist three or four Guinnesses and enjoy a couple of cigars?
    Last edited by Heeeere's Olesker!; April 9, 2020 at 11:04pm.

  12. #387
    Heroic Warrior manowar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heeeere's Olesker! View Post
    It's a little different for Chicagoans who come out here. Most of them have fabulous second homes and all of the homes are no more than three or four blocks from Lake Michigan. So they're fine coming out here for a week or two and 'working from home', and going down to the lakeshore for a nice long hike or along meandering creeks and woodland areas. Plenty of room to social distance here. Sitting out in the backyard with members of your immediate family gathered around a crackling log burning in a fire pit and roasting 'Smores is wonderful too. Can't say as I blame them as we're blessed to live in Valhalla.

    When this thing is finally over with, come summer, how about you and Krueger come out here for a weekend and we can hoist three or four Guinnesses and enjoy a couple of cigars?
    I'd be up for this

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  13. #388
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sword2Blanket View Post
    It was millions of Americans could die if we did nothing.

    I honestly don't understand how someone can have that takeaway after reading the article. It's projected that even if we continue the measures that are currently in place the death toll will ultimately be four times what it is now.

    The article had a direct quote warning against this very mindset:

    "I think the American public have done a really terrific job of just buckling down and doing those physical separation and adhering to those guidelines," Fauci said on Thursday. "But having said that, we better be careful that we don't say, 'OK, we're doing so well we could pull back.' We still have to put our foot on the accelerator when it comes to the mitigation and the physical separation."
    Exactly!

    If anything, it's the NOT going back to work that has dropped those projected numbers down by the thousands.
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  14. #389
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  15. #390
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    Update on (He-Man and the Masters of the Multiverse artist) Tom Derenickís brother and father.

    Thank you everyone for all the support you've shown while my family is going through this. Just a quick update on my brother and dad. David's seems to be slowly recovering, still sick but his fever's going down day by day. My father's been yoyoing, pretty much the way this virus works according to the infectious disease doctor, He improved enough two days ago that I could talk to him on the phone and he sounded good other than a cough but yesterday he went back in the ICU because of O2 problems. So from moment to moment we don't know.

  16. #391
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    I am officially living in a new emergency crisis era.

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  17. #392
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    Who thinks this is a real life version of the Darkening from Dark Crystal Age of Resistance?

    Everyone should do what they are told and stay in until May.
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  18. #393
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarryCanyon View Post
    Who thinks this is a real life version of the Darkening from Dark Crystal Age of Resistance?

    Everyone should do what they are told and stay in until May.
    Who would be the Skeksis in this scenario then?
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  19. #394
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarryCanyon View Post
    Who thinks this is a real life version of the Darkening from Dark Crystal Age of Resistance?

    Everyone should do what they are told and stay in until May.
    this whole thing eerily reminds me of Corrupted Blood Glitch/Bug from World of Warcraft.

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  20. #395
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    Predictions are made based on available data and typically assume NO ACTION is taken.

    We are taking action. The models therefore change. Available data changes. The models change.

    The new numbers assume we keep on doing the right thing. We can't just end what we're doing to stay safe based on a revised prediction.
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  21. #396
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    Quote Originally Posted by He-Manis007 View Post
    Predictions are made based on available data and typically assume NO ACTION is taken.

    We are taking action. The models therefore change. Available data changes. The models change.

    The new numbers assume we keep on doing the right thing. We can't just end what we're doing to stay safe based on a revised prediction.
    Not with the millions number, but most of the predictive models took social distancing and safety measures into account. The fact that the numbers are going down even more than the models had is good, but shows their flaws.

    Hopefully, the United States will be able to open mostly back up by mid-May or June or I'd hate to see what more becomes of the economy.

  22. #397
    Heroic Warrior moltak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firefly View Post
    Not with the millions number, but most of the predictive models took social distancing and safety measures into account. The fact that the numbers are going down even more than the models had is good, but shows their flaws.
    Well said.

    Models naturally involve lots of assumptions. Large-scale models in the public forum, including epidemiology, are generally biased towards worst-case scenarios. This is not a bad thing per se (arguably necessary even), but it is a limitation people should understand.

    The sharp decrease in COVID-19 projections by literally orders of magnitude should give us optimism.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firefly View Post
    Hopefully, the United States will be able to open mostly back up by mid-May or June or I'd hate to see what more becomes of the economy.
    Texas is planning to reopen next week. That will create a laboratory effect, where we can assess the outcomes of different postures state by state.

    I think that will probably be the real catalyst. Some states and localities will take a risk, and everyone else will watch and see how it goes.

  23. #398
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarryCanyon View Post
    Who thinks this is a real life version of the Darkening from Dark Crystal Age of Resistance?

    Everyone should do what they are told and stay in until May.
    More like OUTBREAK, which is right up there on the Scary Level.

  24. #399
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    Quote Originally Posted by moltak View Post
    Oops we just can’t get these predictions even close.

    It was millions of Americans. Made its way down to 100K. Now only 60K.

    Fauci says deaths may be more like 60,000

    Don’t get me wrong. This is a good problem to have. But the sun is coming out, and the experts keep getting wronger, and in the right direction. Let’s get back to work.
    I love that people are praising social distancing, it was built into the models. If you want to be enlightened look into Knut WittKowski. He talks about how the government failed every step in the way with this virus from choosing the wrong experts to listen to, the wrong models, etc. He talks extensively about respiratory illnesses and how the lock down will actually prolong the illness. Really smart guy.

    Knut Wittkowski, PhD, ScD- 35 years in biostatistics and epidemiology:

    "With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated."

    And no, I think it is more dangerous to follow the narrative and not think critically (for whomever scolded me for not trusting the government, I cannot remember who you are). Like I said earlier, I opted to start social distancing back in January because I am at risk and my hubby can work remotely (thank God). I would never expect the government to commit suicide to protect me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firefly View Post
    Not with the millions number, but most of the predictive models took social distancing and safety measures into account. The fact that the numbers are going down even more than the models had is good, but shows their flaws.

    Hopefully, the United States will be able to open mostly back up by mid-May or June or I'd hate to see what more becomes of the economy.
    It doesn't help that it was a 13 year old model used for flu and the guy refused to share his code. Forgive me, I am not well versed in this sort of thing. A friend of mine explained to me that whenever a model like this is used the modeler gives people access to the code so it can be checked and rechecked for accuracy. He refused to do that. The entire world shut down using a model they could not check. This is incredibly dangerous.
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  25. #400
    Cobra Saboteur Firefly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heeeere's Olesker! View Post
    More like OUTBREAK, which is right up there on the Scary Level.
    I watched that the other day. The virus in that movie kills you in a day or 2, turns your insides into mush, and gives you sores. For this one, it can take up to 14 days to show signs and most people will show very little or no signs at all.

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